Tag Archives: peak oil

Fiddling while the hydrocarbons burn

The National Government has shown a disdain for environmental concerns and sustainability initiatives (even when those initiatives save money and make good fiscal sense). In fact, they seem to be gleefully heading in the opposite direction –  favouring road-building and allowing the construction of a new gas-fired power-plant, while dithering and delaying about the ETS (admittedly deeply flawed, but so far New Zealand’s centrepiece policy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions).

John Key & Bill English are obviously not going to listen to an obscure greenish blogger.  Perhaps they might listen to a relatively conservative Professor of Economics?

Prof. James Hamilton’s latest research paper “Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08” (summary available at his blog here) has this conclusion about what drove the spectacular rise in oil prices through 07-08 and the subsequent and equally dramatic fall:

But while the question of the possible contribution of speculators and the Fed is a very interesting one, it should not distract us from the broader fact: some degree of significant oil price appreciation during 2007-08 was an inevitable consequence of booming demand and stagnant production. It is worth emphasizing that this is fundamentally a long-run problem, which has been resolved rather spectacularly for the time being by a collapse in the world economy. However, the economic collapse will hopefully prove to be a short-run cure for the problem of excess energy demand. If growth in the newly industrialized countries resumes at its former pace, it would not be too many more years before we find ourselves back in the kind of calculus that was the driving factor behind the problem in the first place. Policy-makers would be wise to focus on real options for addressing those long-run challenges, rather than blame what happened last year entirely on a market aberration. (empahsis added)

We have a window of opportunity – let’s use it.

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Peak Oil and Oil Prices

Oil prices in recent times rose dizzyingly to all-time highs. In an intuitive way, the experience seemed to many to validate the notion of Peak-Oil. Then along came the credit-crunch and the global-financial-crisis, and oil prices have plunged dramatically. Does that mean Peak Oil is no longer a problem?

Well no. Peak oil is a consequence of geological realities, and oil prices are a manifestation of market forces. In themselves, rising oil prices didn’t ‘prove Peak Oil’ and falling oil prices don’t ‘disprove Peak Oil’.

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